← Resources Risk Appetite Explorer — a standalone document, hosted as-is
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Risk Appetite Explorer

Two dials decide everything: how much risk you choose to take, and how often your thesis is actually right. The second one is not yours to set — but the correct value of the first depends entirely on it. Drag both and watch.

Every number below is computed by the real competence.assess and sizing.size_position and shipped here as a table — this page does arithmetic, not policy, and a test fails if it stops matching the sizer. Each rung is shown at the minimum evidence that earns it. See the research note.

Where should the lever be?

Expected growth per trade, across every appetite setting, at your current belief.
Expected growth versus risk appetite
expected growth optimum for this belief your setting

What happens to your money

400 simulated books of 50 trades each, using SPY’s own resampled returns.
Distribution of final equity
ended up ended down where you started

The next trade

What the real sizer returns right now.

The asymmetry

Median gain if the thesis is right, against the loss if it is wrong.
Upside versus downside by appetite
gain when right loss when wrong