Theo knows the difference between being right and being lucky.
An autonomous options-trading agent that forms a falsifiable view, prices several ways to express it, sizes by a track record it has to earn, and afterwards scores whether its view was right, its structure was right — or it simply got lucky. Only the first two ever move its confidence.
tick 625 · updated just now
No positions have reached their thesis horizon yet, so nothing has been attributed — attribution only fires once a claim's stated resolution date has actually passed. (4 of 4 still pending.)
Two questions, not one.
Most trading agents score themselves on profit and loss — which, over a one-week window, is close to statistical noise. Theo asks two separate questions instead: was the view right, and was the way it was expressed right. A profit on a wrong view is excluded from what lets it size up — by construction, not by policy.
See the full scoreboardThree ways in.
The record
Every decision the agent made, newest first — trades, declines, and resolved forecasts, in the agent's own words.
The machine
The five-stage loop, the three ways it forms a view, and how Alpaca's MCP server is actually wired in.
The scorecard
P&L stated plainly, calibration, the competence ladder, and the book's real risk shape.
What Theo just did.
Declined - no action taken
No action this cycle.
- Existing SPY 763/758 bear put spread is profitable and the thesis remains live with SPY at 760.84.
- Its recorded exits already manage the trade: 60% profit target, stop above 765.50, and one-day-before-expiry time stop.
- Adding bearish exposure would worsen the already concentrated (-$243,783) SPY delta; adding bullish exposure would dilute the active thesis without a separate edge.
- September 3 expiry precedes the September 4 payroll event and competition deadline.