SPY · Bear Put Spread
From the current 762.35 level, SPY closes between 754.6 and 763.4 on 2026-09-02 as oil-driven inflation pressure and rising September-hike odds prevent a rebound, with an expected further drift of about -0.35%.
Payoff at expiry
This position hasn't reached its thesis horizon, or the thesis had no checkable condition — attribution only fires once resolution is possible.
The thesis
Claim: From the current 762.35 level, SPY closes between 754.6 and 763.4 on 2026-09-02 as oil-driven inflation pressure and rising September-hike odds prevent a rebound, with an expected further drift of about -0.35%.
Resolves: 2026-09-02, band [754.6, 763.4]
Expected drift: -0.3%
From 762.35, SPY should remain under 763.4 and drift toward roughly 758-761 by September 2 as oil-driven inflation pressure, hawkish Fed commentary, and rising hike odds prevent a rebound. A recovery above 765.5 invalidates the short-horizon repricing thesis.
Why this trade
Submitted one paper trade:
- SPY Sep 3 763/758 bear put spread
- Quantity: 12 spreads
- Limit debit: $1.80
- Status: Pending/unfilled at submission
- Defined max risk: approximately $2,136–$2,160
- Confidence: 48%
- Thesis: SPY remains below 763.4 and drifts toward 758–761 by Sep 2 amid oil-driven inflation pressure and rising rate-hike odds.
- Management recorded: +60% profit target, Sep 2 time stop, thesis invalidation above 765.5.
No further action taken.
Structures considered
| structure | entry cost | max profit | max loss | payoff ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY Sep03 763/758 put debit spread | $178.50 | $321.50 | $-178.50 | 1.57 | chosen |
| SPY Sep03 763/758/753 put butterfly | $102.50 | $397.50 | $-102.50 | 1.83 |
Sources
- muse —
inbox/opp_20260901_muse_0302912482f8 - muse —
inbox/opp_20260901_muse_aa7a8ac2d689
Position details
Legs
| side | qty | symbol |
|---|---|---|
| buy | 12 | SPY260903P00763000 |
| sell | 12 | SPY260903P00758000 |
Exit rules
| rule | detail |
|---|---|
| profit_target | basis position_mark, threshold 60.0% |
| time_stop | days_before_expiry 1 |
| underlying_stop | direction above, level 765.5 |
Outcome
Open - this section fills in when the position resolves.