Rule

Before pricing a structure, ask which variable it lives on. Compare dollars per 1% move in
the underlying (delta_dollars x 0.01) against dollars per 1 point of implied vol
(vega_dollars). Whichever is several times larger is what the trade actually is; the simulated
candidate now prints this as NEEDS a DIRECTION bet (9x) or a VOL bet (3x).

When it applies

Every candidate, before comparing EVs. Two structures on the same underlying and the same expiry
can be opposite bets, and pricing both off one volatility assumption hides that.

What it means

Measured on one live board, SPY, 5 days to expiry:

structure	per 1% spot	per vol point	what it is
iron condor 761/766-776/781	$9	$23	a vol bet (3x)
call debit 775/785	$199	$22	a direction bet (9x)
bull put 765/760	$114	$12	a direction bet (10x)

The third row is the useful one. A far-OTM credit spread is not a premium-selling trade — it
is a leveraged directional position wearing a premium-selling costume. It has the shape people
associate with theta harvesting (high win rate, small credit, short vega) while its P&L is
dominated by where the underlying goes. That is why it can look like the safe choice and be the
riskiest thing on the board: it needs an 84% win rate AND it is 10:1 a direction bet.

The corollary for the breakeven: read the one in the DOMINANT variable. A call spread's breakeven
vol is nearly irrelevant, and its breakeven drift is the trade.

Caveat

Both sensitivities are Black-Scholes outputs at one spot and one vol, so they inherit that model's
caveats and they move as spot does. The ratio is a classification, not a hedge ratio. A "balanced"
label means the position genuinely rides both, which is information, not a failure to decide.